271
FXUS66 KSGX 190045
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
445 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The final round of rain, snow, and gusty winds will be Thursday,
with the main cold front moving through the area late Thursday
morning through the early evening. There is a slight chance of
thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Showers will
diminish overnight Thursday with gusty winds diminishing by Friday
morning. Frost is possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Dry
conditions looking like they will prevail through the weekend.
Chances of precipitation increase again mid-next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

...New Aviation and Marine Discussion For the 00z TAF Package...

Key Points:

*Gusty and potentially damaging west winds along the mountain
 crests and adjacent desert slopes Thursday into Friday morning.
 Gusty westerly winds expected for the coast and valleys during
 the day Thursday.


*3-8 inches of additional snow expected Thursday into Friday morning.
 Additional snow plus strong winds may result in blowing snow and
 limited visibility. Snow levels as low as 3500 to 4000 ft
 Thursday may result in light accumulations through the Cajon
 Pass.

*Light to moderate rain is expected Thursday. Ponding of water on
 roads and minor street flooding in urban areas possible.
 Thunderstorms may bring locally heavy rain, stronger winds, and
 small hail.

At 1 PM a few isolated showers were moving across the coastal basin.
Any lingering showers this afternoon will produce light rain, with
hourly rates less than 0.10" per hour. Winds are still gusting over
the mountains and into the deserts. Gusts this afternoon are mainly
35-55 mph. A lull in the winds is expected overnight, but winds are
still expected to increase again Thursday peaking in the afternoon
and evening, continuing into early Friday morning. For the mountain
ridges and desert mountain slopes peak gusts of 60 to 70 mph,
potentially up to 75 mph in wind prone locations are expected. Wind
gusts in the deserts will be 45 to 65 mph with the strongest winds
near the mountain foothills. For the coast and valleys, peak gusts
of 30 to 45 mph are expected. Winds for the coast and valleys are
expected to peak with the passage of the cold front. The front will
start to move through Orange County/San Bernardino County mid-
morning, reaching San Diego county by the early afternoon.

Light to moderate precipitation is expected Thursday with the
heaviest precipitation expected with the frontal passage or where
any thunderstorms develop. For the coast and valleys and additional
0.25 to 0.50" of rain are possible with 0.10" or less in the
deserts. Snow levels for through Thursday are expected to be 3500-
5000 ft with an additional 3 to 8 inches of snow expected across
area mountains. Current forecast has a 60% chance of accumulating
snow on I-15 at the summit of the Cajon Pass.

Dry conditions are expected by Friday, with diminishing winds. Dry
conditions will prevail through the weekend. Conditions may be cold
enough Friday and Saturday morning for patchy frost to develop in
the valleys and High Desert. High temperatures will warm each day
for Friday through Monday with high temperatures on Monday around 5
degrees above average. Shower chances begin to increase again Monday
evening into Tuesday, with the highest chances of precipitation
currently Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION... 190030Z...SCT-BKN clouds 3,000-6,000 feet MSL through
Thursday morning west of the mountains. Winds gusting 25-40 kts
along east-facing desert slopes and through mtn passes will weaken
03-06Z Thu. Clouds begin to fill in and lower after 18Z Thu as yet
another round of light to moderate precip moves into the area.
Current guidance indicates the main precip band will move northwest
to southeast through the coastal basin from 18Z Thu to 02Z Fri. A
few hours of MVFR cigs/vis is expected for the coasts/valleys with
mtns shrouded in FG through Thu evening. Winds turn southwest and
strengthen again late Thursday morning and into the afternoon. Gusts
25-35 kts through the coastal basin (locally 40 kts at the coast),
35-45 kts widespread for the mtns and deserts, and 50-65 kts along
desert slopes.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds gusting to 20 kts may create hazardous conditions for small
craft through early this evening. Winds and associated seas will
calm down briefly overnight, but hazardous conditions will redevelop
ahead of the next system on Thursday. Gusts reaching 25 to 30 knots
in the afternoon. Conditions will improve Friday.

&&

.BEACHES...
High surf of 4 to 7 feet is expected with sets as high as 8 feet,
highest in San Diego County today. A lull is expected tonight before
high surf returns Thursday afternoon. Dangerous swimming and surfing
conditions and localized beach erosion can be expected. A High Surf
Advisory is in effect through Friday and contains more details.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM PST Friday for Orange County
     Coastal Areas-San Diego County Coastal Areas.

     Wind Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 2 AM PST Friday for Orange
     County Coastal Areas-Orange County Inland Areas-San
     Bernardino and Riverside County Valleys-The Inland Empire-
     San Diego County Coastal Areas-San Diego County Valleys-
     Santa Ana Mountains and Foothills.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM PST Friday for Riverside County
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for San Diego
     County Mountains.

     Wind Advisory until 9 AM PST Friday for Apple and Lucerne
     Valleys-Coachella Valley-San Diego County Deserts-San
     Gorgonio Pass near Banning.

PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
     from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border and out to 10 nm-
     Waters from San Mateo Point to the Mexican Border Extending
     10 to 60 nm out including San Clemente Island.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...KW

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office