984
FXUS66 KSGX 222036
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
136 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue today,
with highest thunderstorm chances this afternoon. Showers will end
from the northwest late Friday afternoon.  Southwest to west winds
along the desert slopes of the mountains will gust to 40 to 50 mph
through tonight. Dry and warmer for the weekend through Monday, then
gradually cooler for next week with a chance of precipitation for
late next week. Tides will increase over the weekend, remaining
elevated through much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

At noon, scattered showers were being observed especially north of
San Diego County. Rainfall totals over the past 6 hours have seen
quite the range with accumulations of 0.01 to 0.10" and up to
0.60 to 1". Highest totals have been observed near mountain
foothills and in the mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected to continue through the afternoon. Rainfall activity is
expected move south more into San Diego County through this
afternoon and evening, but will remain scattered in coverage. For
this evening and overnight peak rainfall rates of 0.25 to 0.35
inches per hour are expected. An additional 0.25 to 0.75 inch of
rain may accumulate in some locations. In addition to periods of
rain, gusty winds can be expected over the mountains, locally into
the deserts. Peak gusts of 45 to 55 mph are expected through this
evening.

High temperatures on Friday will be a few degrees warmer than today
for the coast to the mountains with greater warming of 5 to 10
degrees on Saturday. High temperatures on Saturday will be as much
as 5 to 10 degrees below average for the mountains. Conditions will
continue to warm Sunday and Monday. By Monday, high temperatures in
coastal areas will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with
temperatures closer to average further inland.

The flow will turn offshore for the weekend, with periods of north
to northeasterly winds in the mornings. Strongest winds will be on
the mountain foothills and below passes and canyons. Right now it
looks like peak wind gusts will be in the 30 to 45 mph range. Given
the unsettled weather quickly turning to offshore flow, marine layer
low clouds and fog will largely be absent from the coast into early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
221830Z...SCT SHRA and ISO TSRA this morning, mostly north of SD
County, continuing through around 03z. Cigs down to 1500-2500 feet
MSL and vis 3-5SM at times in heavier SHRA/TSRA, otherwise bases
will be 3500-4500 feet MSL. Partial obscuration of mountains this
morning, but improving vis later today. More SCT SHRA expected after
07z through Friday morning for coastal areas and ISO SHRA inland.
SHRA taper off everywhere from north to south during the day Friday.
Onshore winds in mountains into deserts 25-30 kts, creating MOD
up/downdrafts in lee of ridges.

&&

.MARINE...
A storm system will slowly move through the coastal waters today
through Friday. There is a slight chance of thunderstorms today. Any
thunderstorm is capable of producing gusty, erratic winds, choppy
seas, lightning, briefly heavy rainfall with reduced visibility, and
waterspouts. Isolated northwest wind gusts will occasionally exceed
20 knots Friday. No hazardous marine conditions are expected Friday
night through Monday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Astronomical high tides will create minor to moderate coastal
flooding starting Saturday. Tides are 1.4-1.6 feet above
predictions. Morning high tides could reach 7 feet Saturday morning
and are likely to exceed 7.5 feet by Monday morning.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.


&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Riverside County
     Mountains-San Bernardino County Mountains-San Diego County
     Deserts-San Diego County Mountains-San Gorgonio Pass near
     Banning.

PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...CO
AVIATION/MARINE/BEACHES...Westerink

NWS San Diego (SGX) Office