905
FXUS65 KVEF 242053
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
153 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Hotter than normal temperatures will continue through the week.

* Best chance of storms is along and south of I-15 today, with
  diminishing odds afterwards.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Through the weekend.

The primary weather concern this week is extreme heat. An upper
level ridge centered over Arizona will strengthen throughout the
workweek. Surface temperatures increase in response to rising
heights aloft, peaking on Thursday with afternoon highs and morning
lows about 5 to 10 degrees above normal for late August. This means
highs in the upper 100s to mid 110s and lows in the mid 80s to low
90s in the valleys across the Mojave Desert including Las Vegas.
These temperatures yield widespread swaths of Major (Level 3 of 4)
to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk today through Friday and an
Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect. Numerous daily high records
and warm minimum temperature records are in jeopardy - see the
CLIMATE section below for details. Temperatures fall back to near
normal values by the weekend as a trough pushes east into the ridge
and heights aloft decrease.

Meanwhile, an increase in moisture fueled by outflows from last
night`s storm activity in Arizona has already started to spur
convection in Mohave County this afternoon. Mesoanalysis shows 500
to 1000 J/kg CAPE and 1 to 1.5 inches of PWAT in areas along and
southeast of Interstate 15. Some storms may be capable of producing
gusty outflow winds and downpours which may lead to flash flooding.
High resolution guidance suggests additional isolated convection
over high terrain across much of the area tomorrow, but rising
heights aloft from the intruding ridge should help suppress storm
development. Moisture will gradually decrease later in the week with
dry southwesterly flow, reducing precipitation potential even
further.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will favor a southwesterly direction and strengthen this afternoon,
with speeds in excess of 10 knots and gusts between 20 and 25 knots.
There is a low (10 to 20 percent) chance of convection on high
terrain around the Las Vegas Valley this afternoon. Regional
thunderstorm activity may produce outflow winds that could cause a
sudden change in wind direction and intensity throughout the
afternoon and evening, but confidence is too low to include in the
TAF at this time. Outside of convective influence, southwesterly
winds fall to less than 10 knots then become variable overnight.
Temperatures exceed 100 degrees through 03Z and increase to over 100
degrees by 19Z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly to
southwesterly winds develop this afternoon in the Las Vegas Valley,
Colorado River Valley, and Owens Valley. Peak gusts should be
between 20 and 25 knots. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm activity
is expected this afternoon and evening in areas along and southeast
of Interstate 15, with the highest confidence for impacts at KEED
and KIFP. The threat of gusty and erratic outflow winds from these
storms will last throughout the afternoon and evening. Outside of
convective influence, winds should weaken for most areas overnight,
and light winds will last into tomorrow morning.

&&

.CLIMATE...Numerous climate locations have a forecast high
temperature and/or forecast warm low temperature within 3 degrees of
the daily record.

The table below shows the daily record maximum temperature and the
year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which records
are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

MAX           MON, AUG 24 TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     112(2021)   111(2011)   109(2001)*  110(2017)*
Bishop        102(2022)*  103(2020)   103(2019)*  103(2019)*
Needles       118(2011)   119(1924)   122(1924)   120(1891)
Daggett       111(1985)   111(1985)   111(2011)*  111(2017)*
Kingman       107(2011)   106(2020)   106(2020)*  107(2017)*
Desert Rock   106(2011)   107(1985)   106(2001)*  107(2017)
Death Valley  124(1926)   123(2011)   122(2017)*  124(1924)

The table below shows the daily record warm minimum temperature and
the year the record was last set. An asterisk (*) denotes which
records are in jeopardy (within 3 degrees of the forecast).

WARM MIN      TUE, AUG 25 WED, AUG 26 THU, AUG 27 FRI, AUG 28
              Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record(Yr)  Record (Yr)

Las Vegas     87(2020)    88(2020)*   87(2011)*   86(2019)*
Bishop        65(1988)    66(1988)    67(1970)    62(1970)
Needles       92(2020)    93(2011)    93(2011)    94(2017)
Daggett       81(2003)*   82(1981)*   81(2011)*   82(2017)*
Kingman       78(2011)    79(1945)*   79(2020)*   75(2019)*
Desert Rock   78(1998)*   78(1985)*   78(1995)*   77(2011)*
Death Valley  98(1991)*   98(1991)*   95(2011)*  100(2019)*


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/CLIMATE...Meltzer


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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office