643
FXUS65 KVEF 142254
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
354 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Chances for terrain-based, afternoon and evening convection will
  continue through the end of the week.

* Near-to-slightly above normal temperatures will continue through
  midweek, with temperatures decreasing slightly heading into the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Tuesday.

A band of clouds extending from eastern San Bernardino County,
through Clark County, and into Lincoln County will will limit
daytime heating and convective potential through the central portion
of our forecast area. ACARs soundings illustrate the lack of
instability nicely with a whopping 50 to 60 J/kg of CAPE in the Las
Vegas Valley. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be
in Mohave County, across the southern Great Basin, and in the
mountains of Inyo County, where mesoanalysis reveals 500 to 1,000
J/kg of surface based CAPE. Storms will favor areas of higher
terrain for development, decaying as they move off the terrain.
Lightning, strong outflow winds, and heavy rain capable of resulting
in flash flooding will be the primary hazards with any convection
that develops. Storms will diminish after sunset, with additional
rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected each afternoon through
the end of the week.

The Four Corners High will expand westward as we approach midweek,
allowing temperatures to increase to 3 to 5 degrees above-normal on
Wednesday and Thursday. Though we`ve seen these temperatures already
this year, we haven`t seen these temperatures with humidity. Hot
daytime temperatures, warm overnight temperatures, and monsoonal
humidity result in widespread Moderate (Level 2 of 4) with pockets
of High (Level 3 of 4) Heat Risk on both days. It should be noted
that cloud debris from the previous day`s convection may trap heat
and result in warmer overnight lows, while cloud cover and rainfall
may lower daytime highs in locations affected by storms.
Temperatures start to decrease later in the week as high pressure
moves back east.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Looks
like convection will remain outside of the Vegas Valley today, and
likely Wednesday as well. Removed the mention of VCTS for Wednesday,
with chances dropping to around 10-20% on the local high terrain.
Winds are forecast to remain fairly light, though occasional gusts
of 15-20 knots are possible from the southwest through sunset, and
tomorrow afternoon as well. FEW-SCT clouds 8-12kft and SCT-BKN
between 15-20kft. Temps remain above 100F through 03z, then again
from 17z-06z tomorrow.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 00Z Forecast Package...Scattered convection
continues across most of Mohave County and the southern Great Basin
through sunset. This activity will wane this evening and redevelop
Wednesday afternoon in largely the same areas. Main concerns
continue to be gusty outflow winds. Outside of convective
influences, winds should be light and generally follow typical,
daily patterns. SCT-BKN clouds at or above 8kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Stessman
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office