562
FXUS65 KVEF 221939
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1239 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Scattered showers and thunderstorms with brief heavy rain, small
  hail, and lightning will remain possible through this evening.

* Drier conditions and seasonable temperatures expected this
  weekend and early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through next Thursday.

A large 564dm low continues to slowly meander across central
California this afternoon, with a strong and deep southerly flow
out ahead of it. This flow pattern has entrained some deeper
surface moisture north into the region over the past couple days,
and as the low moves inland today, cooler air aloft is moving in
helping to add to the instability present. This is sparking a few
corridors of strong thunderstorm activity again this afternoon.
Deep layer shear of 40-50 knots or greater is resulting in very
fast northward storm motions which is helping to limit the flood
threat, but enhancing the risk of small to potentially quarter
sized hail. This risk will remain present through the evening
hours before instability begins to wane and the corridor of
instability and wind shear shifts eastward.

By tomorrow, the low will have moved inland and begun to weaken
considerably, but weak troughing will remain over head with
lingering terrain driven showers possible. Conditions will
continue to dry through the weekend and next week with
temperatures returning to near normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...
Scattered showers in the vicinity of the field will persist into
this evening before ending by 04Z. Initially, most of the activity
is expected to be over the higher terrain west of the field, but
guidance is showing a window between 22Z and 02Z when showers will
have a better chance of directly impacting the field. Away from
showers, winds should generally be southerly with gusts to 20 knots.
However, winds may be affected by shower activity, resulting in
erratic wind directions at times. An isolated thunderstorm is also
not out of the question later this afternoon. Winds will diminish
overnight and Friday, with speeds staying below 8 knots. CIGs should
generally remain above 8kft AGL but could fall to 5kft to 6kft AGL
in any showers.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue to be possible across a large
portion of the region this afternoon and evening, with the heaviest
activity located over the eastern third. CIGs could fall as low as
5kft to 6kft AGL in and near the stronger activity, while away from
precipitation, cloud bases should generally remain AOA 8kft AGL.
Locally erratic winds are also likely near showers and storms.
Otherwise, gusty south to west winds are expected at most regional
terminals into this evening. Lighter winds will be seen overnight,
with speeds falling below 10 knots in most areas.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Planz

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office