009
FXUS65 KVEF 190511
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
911 PM PST Wed Feb 18 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  After a brief lull tonight, another round of wind and
   precipitation impacts are expected with one more system
   Thursday into Thursday night.

*  Drier conditions return Friday and this weekend into next week.
&&

.DISCUSSION...through early next week.

Any lingering snow showers in Mohave and Lincoln County will shift
east later this afternoon. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in
effect until 4 PM PT/5 PM MT for these areas- considered expiring
the headline early but the snow showers prove to be robust with
reports of brief low visibilities and snow on roadways in Mohave
County. Once this precipitation ends, it should be dry this
evening and much of tonight. The break in precipitation will be
short lived though as the next shortwave in the parade of weather
systems digs into the region. This system looks similar to the
one from overnight into today but with a tad less moisture and
forcing (but similar trajectory and overall set up). While this
could result in lower rain and snow amounts, minor to moderate
impacts are still expected. The HREF is signally decent snowfall
rates in the Spring Mountains Thursday after midday and a winter
headline will likely be needed as probabilities for accumulating
snow in the terrain are increasing. Precipitation will move
through southern Nevada in the afternoon which would limit
impacts at Mountain Pass, CA with warmer temperatures than this
last round this morning. Otherwise, confidence in snow impacts
and amounts is low as it depends on how quickly precipitation
sweeps through. Aspendell, CA snow amount is borderline for
Winter Storm Warnings as dry air rushes down the Owens Valley.
And, while amounts may be only a few inches in Lincoln and
northern Mohave County Thursday, the snow would fall during the
afternoon and evening with commute times. Will hold off until all
snow has ended across the region and to get one more look at the
hi- res models to make decisions.

Wind advisories across much of the area have been allowed to expire
this morning except in the Western Mojave Desert were gusts over 40
MPH continue. High probabilities for gusts over 40 MPH continue
through the afternoon then slowly diminish into this evening. The
Wind Advisory continues in that area until 10 PM PT which looks good
given recent trends. All models then show a significant drop off in
winds in the Western Mojave Desert (as well as regionally) tonight
and Thursday morning before gusty west to southwest winds return on
Thursday. Wind gusts will likely remain in the 20-30 MPH range
through much of Thursday and the potential for impactful wind
gusts over 40 MPH does not return until late Thursday afternoon or
evening. Compared to the ongoing situation, the low level jet will
be weaker and further south with any probabilities for gusts over
40 MPH focused on the Western Mojave Desert into southern Mohave
County. Wind headlines may be needed but not confident enough that
impacts would be outside the terrain given the synoptic set up
and timing.

This next system will exit the region Friday morning and finally the
active weather pattern will transition to a quieter pattern. Ridging
will build into the region Friday through the weekend which will
result in dry weather, lighter winds, and a warming trend. Above
normal temperatures are possible Sunday and early next week. A few
weak weather systems try to enter the region early next week, but
will struggle to overcome the ridge.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southwest breezes tonight give way to gusty conditions tomorrow.
Gusts of 20-30 knots are likely (70%), though there is some
uncertainty in how winds evolve after sunset. Gusty southwest winds
are expected to continue into the overnight hours, but there may be
times where a mountain rotor induces light easterly/variable winds
at the terminal (30%). The development of this feature would also
result in increased turbulence. In addition to the winds,
precipitation and low clouds are anticipated during the TAF period,
particularly between 20z and 01z as rain chances rise above 50%. Not
expecting heavy rain, but enough to potentially bring some
visibility reductions and CIGs down to around 3kft (50%).

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light breezes continue
across the region tonight, increasing on Thursday as a system pushes
in. Widespread gusts of 20-35 knots are likely (70%), with locally
stronger gusts possible (30%) across the Mojave Desert.
Precipitation and low clouds will also accompany this system.
Precipitation chances stay mostly north of I-15 during the morning
hours, spreading to the I-15 corridor and points southeast during
the afternoon and evening hours. Snow levels around 3.5-5kft will
result in any precipitation falling as snow across the southern
Great Basin. CIGs 3-6kft likely (70%) across most of the area in and
around the precipitation. Rain/snow chances wane from west to east
during the evening hours.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Woods

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NWS Las Vegas (VEF) Office