918
FXUS66 KLOX 291015
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
315 AM PDT Wed Apr 29 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/1153 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail this
week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of
the area at times. Late season rain is possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...29/259 AM.

The forecast area is under the base of a pos tilt long wave trof
with hgts near 576 dam. Weak offshore flow this morning will turn
onshore in the afternoon. The lack of an eddy will keep skies
clear south of Pt Conception, but westerly flow into the Central
Coast will create some low clouds across western SBA county. The
warmer atmosphere and plenty of sunshine will bring 2 to 4 degrees
of warming to most areas and will bring max temps up to near
normal.

On Thursday an upper low that has been spinning harmlessly to the
SW will sweep to the SE and pass south of San Diego. This passage
will not affect our area much at all. There is a better chc for
coastal low clouds in the morning as there should be an eddy. Max
temps will mostly warm another 1 to 3 degrees xcp across the
Central Coast where stronger onshore flow will bring an earlier
seabreeze along with 2 or 3 degrees of cooling.

A 576 dam ridge moves into the state on Friday. Onshore flow will
remain and there will be a grip of morning low clouds across the
csts and locally into the lower vlys. The onshore flow and marine
layer will prevent a big warm up for the cst/vly areas (1-3
degrees) but interior will see 3 to 5 degrees of warming.

There will be gusty winds across the Antelope Vly, the I-5
corridor and the western portion of the SBA south coast each late
afternoon and evening with near advisory level gusts across the
western portion of the SBA south coast.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...29/313 AM.

On Saturday, ridging will continue in the morning but will push
off to the east in the afternoon. The onshore flow will continue
and this should enable the marine layer stratus to continue across
most cst and some lower vlys. The lower hgts due to the movement
of the upper high and moderate onshore flow will cool SLO and most
of SBA county. VTA and LA county will not be affected as much and
will warm an additional 1 to 3 degrees making Saturday the warmest
of the next 7 for those two counties (vly highs in the lower to
mid 80s).

There continues to be decent agreement between the mdls
(deterministic, AI and ensemble) for the Sunday and early next
week forecast.

A very large (for May) 557 dam upper low will move south about
100 miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday. SW flow will set up over
the area. It will be dry, but there will be plenty of mid and
high clouds and likely a whole host of morning low clouds. Max
temps will cool 3 to 6 degrees.

The low will move to the south and east starting Sunday night. It
will track through SLO county and into Kern County Monday
night through Tuesday morning. There is not that much moisuture or
dynamics with this system and not many of the enseble members
bring rain to the area. Right now there is no more than a 20
percent chc of rain for any given 6 hour period Monday through
Tuesday. The upper low does pass directly over SLO county and the
nrn mtns so it is not out of the question that some weak
convection could develop. Overall even if some rain does fall it
does not look to be much. Max temps on Monday will nose dive 4 to
8 locally 10 degrees and will end up only in the mid 60s to lower
70s across the csts/vlys or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal.
Max temps will likelu

&&

.AVIATION...29/1013Z.

At 0835Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1000 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Overall high confidence in the TAFs except for a 15 percent chc of
IFR cigs at KLAX and KLGB 13Z-17Z.

KLAX...Fairly high confidence in TAF with only a 15 percent chc of
BKN008 conds 13Z-17Z. Better confidence in low clouds after
30/08Z but arrival timing could be anytime between 08Z and 13Z.
No significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...29/219 AM.

Moderate to high confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW
winds across the outer waters through late tonight, and possibly
into Friday, especially over the northern outer waters. Moderate
confidence that conds will then remain near but below SCA levels
through Saturday, with winds likely decreasing further on Sunday.
Along the Central Coast, SCA winds are likely each afternoon and
evening period through Thursday, followed by lighter winds through
the weekend.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible this afternoon
and evening (30-40% chance) over the western portion of the
channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds Thursday afternoon
and night, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.

Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty
(but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.

High confidence in swell remaining rather small through Thursday,
but choppy seas will increase with the winds each afternoon and
night. Thursday night into the week seas will build, potentially
reaching 10 feet over the northern outer waters by Saturday.

CC

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RK/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Munroe/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office