310
FXUS66 KLOX 242105
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
205 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...24/805 AM.

Very hot conditions will dominate the week, with a high risk for
heat illness. Patchy night through morning low clouds and locally
dense fog will be confined to coastal areas, mainly north of
Point Conception.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-THU)...24/203 PM.

All systems go for the heat this week, especially south of Pt
Conception. Very little temperature change today, and in fact some
areas are running a degree or two cooler than yesterday. However,
additional warming is expected Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper
high builds and onshore flow weakens. Most areas Tuesday will
warm at least a couple degrees above today and as much as 5
degrees. Another factor with this heat wave is the overnight lows
which will be warming up through the week, into the low to mid 70s
in some areas, which will limit the amount of night time cooling.

For the Central Coast, temperatures will be warming up as well,
but delayed by a day or two. There is about a 40% chance of highs
in the mid to upper 90s in San Luis Obispo by Wednesday and
similar odds for Santa Maria to reach 90. And for inland SLO
County highs between 103 and 108 are expected.

The heat wave will peak Wednesday and Thursday, then a slow cool
down will begin.

.LONG TERM (FRI-MON)...24/200 PM.

Increasing northerly flow over the Santa Ynez range is expected
later in the week with the potential for very hot sundowners
across southern SBA county. A decent N to S gradient will set up
over the county each evening and gusty north canyon winds will
develop. These hot winds could drive max temps into the 100-105
degree range and could also keep temperatures in the 80s until
almost dawn.

Most of the ensemble models are favoring a few degrees of cooling
each day from Friday to next Monday, with highs either at or
slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...24/1650Z.

At 1600Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 700 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 2500 feet with a temperature of 27 degrees
Celsius.

For 18Z TAF package:

  - High confidence in KPRB, KBUR, KVNY, KPMD, KWJF and KCMA.

  - For KSMX and KSBP, timing of flight category changes could be
    +/- 2 hours of current forecasts with a 30% chance that CIG
    and VSBY restrictions do not develop.

  - For KLAX, KSMO and KLGB, there is a 30% chance of IFR/LIFR
    CIGs and VSBYs 09Z-17Z.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. There is a 50% chance that
VFR conditions will prevail through the period. There is a 20-30%
chance of IFR/LIFR conditions 09Z-17Z. No significant easterly
wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in 18Z TAF with VFR conditions through the
period.

&&

.MARINE...24/1250 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Through
Tuesday morning, Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds will
continue across PZZ673/676. From Tuesday afternoon through
Saturday, SCA level winds are expected across all of the Outer
Waters with seas approaching SCA levels (8-10 feet).

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high confidence
in current forecast. Today through Tuesday, high confidence in
winds and seas remaining below SCA levels. For Wednesday through
Saturday, there is a 60-80% chance of SCA level winds in the
afternoon and evening hours. Additionally, seas will approach SCA
levels by Thursday/Friday.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. For a majority of the southern
Inner Waters, high confidence in winds and seas remaining below
SCA levels through Saturday. The only exception will be the
western half of the Santa Barbara Channel where there is a 30-40%
chance of SCA level winds late this afternoon and evening, then a
60-80% chance of SCA level winds Tuesday through Saturday, mainly
in the late afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Heat Advisory in effect until 10 AM PDT Tuesday for zones
      38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>380-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Extreme Heat Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 38-87-88-349>358-362-366>376-378>383-548. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM PDT
      Thursday for zones 341-347-348. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Heat Advisory in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 8 PM PDT Friday
      for zones 342>345. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Red Flag Warning in effect from 10 AM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT
      Friday for zones 345-353-375>380. (See LAXRFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM Tuesday to 3 PM PDT
      Wednesday for zone 670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MW/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...RK

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office