459
FXUS66 KLOX 290557
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
1057 PM PDT Tue Apr 28 2026

.SYNOPSIS...28/801 PM.

Quiet weather with near seasonal temperatures will prevail this
week. Breezy west to northwest winds will occur across portions of
the area at times. A late season rain is possible early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TUE-FRI)...28/952 PM.

***UPDATE***

Temperatures warmed well under sunny skies and rising heights,
with widespread highs in the upper 60s to 70s. Looking at a
slight warming trend through the week, with sub-advisory level
offshore winds developing Wednesday and Thursday mornings, and a
late return of afternoon onshore winds. An upper level low is
forecast to pass to the south of the region Wednesday into
Thursday, before another ridge of high pressure will bring more
noticeable warming Friday. There is just a slight chance for some
isolated showers associated with this low, generally from Ventura
County and southward. Current high resolution guidance suggests
Thursday now has the best chance, focused on the southern
mountains and southern coastal waters.

Tonight, breezy north winds have developed over the western Santa
Ynez Range along with some gusty west winds along the I-14
Corridor. Winds are expected to remain below advisory levels, and
a few areas of low clouds and patchy fog are possible near Point
Conception and for southern portions of the LA Basin. Current
forecast looks on track.

***From Previous Discussion***

Gradient driven (lack of cold air advection) offshore trends and
full sunshine for most will provide a nice warm up of 5-10 degrees
away from the coast with highs generally in the 70s.

For Wednesday southwest California will be under a col area
between a large trof over the Great Basin and an upper well to the
SW of Pt Conception into. There will be enough of an onshore push
to bring low clouds to the LA south coast and the SBA county west
coast in the morning. A few more degrees of warming is forecast
although the stronger onshore push in the afternoon might result
in less warming across the csts and lower vlys. There is a small
chance of a few afternoon showers focused over the mountains of
Los Angeles and Ventura Counties.

The upper low to the SW will sweep harmlessly to the SE and pass
south of San Diego Thursday. The SLO to LA area will see rising
hgts and weak offshore flow. The offshore flow will likely not be
enough to prevent low clouds from developing across LA south coast
and the SBA county west coast in the early morning. Max temps
will respond nicely with 1 to 3 degrees of warming across the csts
vlys (xcp for the Central Cst where the sea breeze will cool the
area by a degree or two). The far interior will warm by 4 to 6
degrees. A few degrees of additional warming is likely Friday.

There will be gusty winds across the Antelope Vly, the I-5
corridor and the western portion of the SBA south coast each late
afternoon and evening strongest Thursday night.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...28/957 AM.

Weak ridging with ~575 dam hgts will dominate the weather
Saturday. There will be moderate onshore flow. The onshore flow
could lead to some night through morning low clouds and fog across
the csts and lower vlys and b. Limit the amount of warming
created by the ridge esp along the csts. Look for 2 to 4 degrees
of warming on Friday with little change on Saturday. Max temps
everywhere, save for the beaches, will end up 2 to 4 degrees above
normal.

There is much better agreement this morning between the mdls
(deterministic, AI and ensemble) for the Sunday and early next
week forecast.

A very large (for May) 558 dam upper low will move south about 100
miles west of the Bay Area on Sunday. SW flow will set up over the
area. It will be dry, but there will be plenty of mid and high
clouds and likely a grip of morning low clouds. Max temps will
cool 3 to 6 degrees.

The low will move to the east starting Sunday night. It will bring
a chance of rain to the area Monday and/or Tuesday. Right now
amounts do not look like they will be too great. Although one
caveat is that if the storm moves directly overhead (about a 20
percent chance) pockets of heavier showers or even a few
thunderstorms would become possible. Max temps will nose dive 4 to
8 locally 10 degrees and will end up only in the mid 60s to lower
70s across the csts/vlys or 3 to 6 locally 8 degrees blo normal.

&&

.AVIATION...29/0547Z.

At 0522Z at KLAX, the marine layer was about 1000 feet deep. The
top of the inversion was 1500 feet with a temperature of 15 C.

Overall high confidence in the TAFs away from the coasts and KSBA,
KOXR and KCMA. Moderate confidence in TAFs for KSBP and KSMO with
a 30 percent chc of cigs (LIFR for KSBP and MVFR for KSMO)
11Z-16Z. There is a 30 percent chc of no cigs at sites with cigs
fcst.

KLAX...High confidence in TAF through 10Z then lower confidence
with timing and hgt of low clouds. There is a 30 percent chc of no
clouds. Better confidence in low clouds after 30/08Z. No
significant east wind component is expected.

KBUR...High confidence in TAF.

&&

.MARINE...28/810 PM.

Moderate confidence in Small Craft Advisory (SCA) W-NW winds
across the outer waters and nearshore along the Central Coast
tonight. Moderate to high confidence that the SCA level winds will
persist through late Thursday night, and possibly into Friday,
especially over the northern outer waters. Moderate confidence
that conds will remain near but below SCA levels through Saturday,
with winds likely decreasing further on Sunday. Along the Central
Coast, SCA winds are likely each afternoon and evening period
through Thursday, followed by lighter winds through the weekend.

For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA winds are possible in the
afternoon and evening Wednesday (30-40% chance) over the western
portion of the channel. There is a higher chance of SCA winds
Thursday afternoon and night, followed by lighter winds through
the weekend.

Otherwise, typical winds expected elsewhere which includes gusty
(but under SCA winds) nearshore each afternoon.

High confidence in swell remaining rather small through Thursday,
but choppy seas will increase with the winds each afternoon and
night. Thursday night into the week seas will build, potentially
reaching 10 feet over the northern outer waters by Saturday.

CC

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Phillips/Munroe
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...RK/Lund
SYNOPSIS...Munroe/Ciliberti

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office