409
FXUS66 KLOX 222027
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
127 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026

.SYNOPSIS...22/126 PM.

Showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms will continue
through this evening. A quiet Friday will transition into a weak
Santa Ana Wind event this weekend, bringing drier conditions and
warmer temperatures to the region into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN)...22/124 PM.

A morning defined by numerous of strong showers and thunderstorms
across all four counties led to a slew of Flood Advisories,
Special Weather Statements, and even a couple of Severe
Thunderstorm Warnings and Flash Flood Warnings. As the upper level
low responsible for the active last 36 hours continues to move
eastward, subsidence on the backside of the upper low will help
to inhibit the vertical growth of storms, thus we are expecting
the most significant weather to have already passed. However, the
Flash Flood Warning in eastern LA County will continue into the
afternoon, as will many of the Flood Advisories. Scattered showers
and maybe a couple thunderstorms may develop into the early
afternoon, but not expecting the magnitude or number of storms as
we saw this morning.

Dry and warmer weather will return Fri-Sun with light offshore
winds in place. At this time any offshore winds are expected to
mostly below advisory levels, and remain confined to the mountains
and some valleys. Temperatures will warm to near or slightly above
normal, so not nearly as warm as last week.

.LONG TERM (MON-THU)...22/124 PM.

A weak Santa Ana event will continue into next week, allowing for
warmer (near normal high temps) and drier conditions to prevail.
Winds will most likely remain confined to the mountains and some
valleys. Onshore flow is expected to return around mid week with
temperatures returning to normal levels. There are some model
solutions indicating a return of wet weather just after Halloween.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1754Z.

At 1715Z at KLAX, there was no marine layer nor an inversion.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Under any
showers and thunderstorms MVFR conds is likely. Otherwise VFR
conds are expected for the most part.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Conditions should mostly
remain VFR with MVFR possible at times. Isolated to widely
scattered showers across the area through 23/18Z. Low chance of a
thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. Good
confidence that any east wind component remains below 8 kts.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. Isolated to widely
scattered showers across the area through 23/12Z. Low chance of a
thunderstorm or two (10-15%) through this afternoon. VFR CIGs
expected except MVFR conds possible under any activity.

&&

.MARINE...22/105 PM.

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast. Gusty
Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds likely are likely at times
by this evening and continue through Friday night. For Saturday
through Tuesday night, winds and seas are expected to remain
below SCA levels.

For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. There is a 20-30% chance of SCA
level winds at times through Friday evening. Otherwise, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels through
Tuesday night.

For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception, moderate to high
confidence in current forecast. Through Tuesday night, high
confidence in winds and seas remaining below SCA levels for most
areas. The only exceptions will be the western half of the Santa
Barbara Channel with a 50-70% chance of SCA level winds late
Friday afternoon and evening and a 40% chance of SCA level wind
gusts for the southern waters Monday evening.

Through this afternoon into early this evening, scattered showers
will affect the coastal waters, with isolated thunderstorms
possible for the southern inner waters. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be capable of producing gusty/erratic winds, locally
rough seas and even waterspouts.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Flood Watch in effect until 6 PM PDT this evening for zones
      348>353. (See LAXFFALOX).
     Flood Watch in effect until 4 PM PDT this afternoon for zones
      362-369-370. (See LAXFFALOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Saturday for
      zones 670-673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 6 AM Friday to 3 AM PDT
      Saturday for zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DB/BL
AVIATION...Sirard
MARINE...Sirard
SYNOPSIS...Lewis

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox

NWS Los Angeles (LOX) Office