273
FXUS65 KPSR 271105
AFDPSR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
405 AM MST Tue Jan 27 2026

.UPDATE...Updated 12z Aviation Discussion...

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A gradual warming trend will continue through the rest of this week
  with daily highs returning to above normal beginning today and
  reaching well above normal by this weekend.

- Persistent high pressure will translate to dry and tranquil weather
  conditions across the forecast area through at least the first
  few days of February.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The upper-lvl pattern remains largely unchanged from 24 hrs ago
as a high amplitude ridge of high pressure continues to build over
the West Coast while a broad trough encompasses the eastern
2/3rds of the Lower 48. Ridging aloft will be the predominant
feature over the next several days which will keep the Desert
Southwest unseasonably warm and dry.

We saw temperatures climb back to near normal yesterday and we will
continue the steady warming trend today as positive 500 mb hght
anomalies continue to overspread the forecast area. After a chilly
morning with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s, temperatures will warm
quickly this afternoon into the upper 60s to low 70s across the
lower deserts and around 60 degrees in the high terrain areas of S
Gila County. A relatively strong sfc high over the southern Rockies
will again result in breezy conditions across the high terrain of
southcentral AZ through at least the first half of today, but winds
should relax later this afternoon. Scattered high clouds will move
back into the region overnight which will lead slightly warmer low
temperatures Wednesday morning settling closer to normal in the low
to mid 40s across the lower deserts. A weak shortwave trough will
progress through the Intermountain West on Wednesday, but will have
little to no impact on the weather in our region. In fact, we will
continue our warming trend with lower desert highs mainly topping
out in the lower 70s Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The upper-lvl pattern will not change much through the end of
the workweek as our forecast area remains between ridging over
the West Coast and troughing over the midwest. A series of
shortwave troughs will progress through the Intermountain West
late this week. However, these shortwaves will have little to no
affect on our weather aside from bringing breezy conditions to the
Lower Colorado River Valley Thursday and Friday. As ridging aloft
continues to build over the West Coast, temperatures will warm a
couple degrees each consecutive day with highs across the lower
deserts pushing into the mid 70s by the end of the week.

Ensemble members remain in agreement that the ridge of high
pressure over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward,
resulting in 500 mb hghts rising to around 580-582 dam over the
Desert Southwest Saturday and Sunday. This will result in a return
of well above normal temperatures (8 to 10 degrees above normal).
Latest NBM deterministic guidance shows highs reaching well into
the upper 70s and even a few 80 degree readings across the lower
deserts this weekend. It does look like the ridge will finally
shift east of our region early next week and be replaced with
shortwave troughing. As this occurs, we could see temperatures dip
by a few degrees Monday and Tuesday. For now the forecast will
remain dry through at least the first half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Updated at 1102Z.

South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds will generally be light and diurnal with speeds aob 7 kts
along with extended periods of variable to calm conditions. Clear
skies will prevail through this afternoon before high cirrus decks
move in by this evening.

Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation weather concerns expected throughout the TAF period.
Winds will generally exhibit a west to north component with speeds
aob 7 kts along with extended periods of variable to calm
conditions. Clear skies this morning will give way to increasing
high cirrus decks this afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather and above normal temperatures will prevail through the
remainder of this week and into this weekend. Afternoon minimum
humidity values will range from 10-25% across all districts with
overnight recoveries ranging from fair to poor around 35-55%.
Elevated easterly winds winds are expected again this morning
across the higher terrain areas of southcentral AZ where gusts up
to 20-25 mph will be possible. Winds will become lighter this
afternoon and follow typical diurnal patterns. There could be some
breeziness across the Lower Colorado River Valley Thursday and
Friday, otherwise wind speeds should remain less than 15 mph.

&&

.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salerno
LONG TERM...Salerno
AVIATION...Lojero
FIRE WEATHER...Salerno

NWS Phoenix (PSR) Office